COP-30 in Brazil: Can the world finally walk the talk?

The 30th UN Climate Conference (COP-30) will take pleasure during November 6-21 in Belem, Brazil. The last UN Climate Conference COP-29 was held in Baku, Azerbaijan from November 11-22, 2024, which much against expectations, could not come to the fullest expectations.

However, the Baku Climate Unity Pact, which established a new Climate finance goal to mobilize $1.3 trillion annually by 2035 and a separate, more specific goals for developed nations to provide at least $300 billion annually as against earlier agreed level of $100 billion annually by 2035 to developing countries.

But the requirements are higher and how the upcoming COO 30 will be able to bridge the gap in terms of climate finance is to be keenly watched.

Against the background that developing countries particularly low income and less developed countries and vulnerable countries who are witnessing more number of climate change events suffering substantial losses to lives and physical infrastructure due to various environmental issues and excessive green gas emissions from the developed nations in the past, cannot sustain these enormous devastation and losses without the full climate finance requirements are made easily available, it is keenly watched whether COP-30 can meet expectations, which is uncertain as it depends on its success in achieving concrete financial commitments.

Moreover, the COP-30 is being held particularly when geo political tensions as well trade policy uncertainties are continuing. Most of the developed countries are more focused on defence preparedness and internal priorities and are they are willing to come forward to enhance the climate finance commitments in the current juncture and whether multilateralism will be strengthened as the same is a critical test for the success of the conference especially after the USA left the process under Trump administration, which is a major blow to the climate conference. Similarly there were talks of private credit as well enhanced commitments from multilateral banks, which can also help in finding required climate finance.

The earlier climate ambition and action plan namely National Determined Contributions Plan submitted in 2021 is due for resubmission by all the member countries by February 2025 and the same needs to be fresh submitted by fresh enhanced NDCs which as of late October 25, over 60 countries have submitted new or updated Nationally Determined Contributions, which are part of the third round of Climate Pledges under the Paris Agreement.

It is also necessary and essential that each member countries particularly developed countries have to substantially enhance and aim at higher level of NDCs as an analysis of the submissions so far shows that the collective ambition falls short of what is needed to limit the global warming to 1.5°C. Even though achieving 1.5°C temperature limit is the goal, it is feared that at the current rate of ambition and action plan and the effective steps taken, the achievement of this goal looks much daring and it needs collective efforts to truly reduce substantially Fossil fuels use and take up in an ambitious adaptation and mitigation measures to limit the global temperature to the desired level.

As it is we are continuously facing heat waves in the recent past and warming has been happening which will have big impact on human lives and fauna and flora. Situation has now come that these action plans can’t be delayed any further and if we have to ensure better and safe life for our future generations, our sincere and committed action plans is needed urgently and any further postponement will be at world peril.

Further analysis of the submissions made so far reveals that countries representing nearly 70 per cent of global emissions have yet to submit their NDCs and are expected to do so by the 2025 UN Climate Conference COP-30.

This is particularly required to know how boldly these countries plan to cut their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, transform their economies and strengthen resilience to growing threats like extreme weather, wildfires and floods. Together all the member countries are in a position to limit the global temperature level to 1.5°C is a vital aspect as to avoid further worst climate impacts.

There must be ambitious commitments (particularly from the highest emitters) is absolutely essential to narrow the gap. If there is any major pledges fall short, this will be a disaster as that could leave the world locked into a trajectory that puts global temperature targets out of reach.

India which had earlier submitted its Revised NDCs in 2022, is likely to submit updated carbon reduction targets by the beginning of COP 30. India had earlier aimed at to reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP by 45 per cent of 2005 levels, source half of its electric power capacity from non fossil fuel sources and create a carbon sink of at least two billion tonnes- all three by 2030.

It is gratifying to note that in June 2025, India reached 50 per cent of its installed electricity capacity from non fossil fuel sources, ahead of its 2030 target. It’s installed solar energy capacity grew from 2.82 gigawatts in 2014 to 116.25 gigawatts by June 2025. Similarly India has progressively decoupled economic growth from greenhouse gas emissions, with a 36 per cent reduction in its GDP emissions intensity between 2005 and 2020, which needs to be enhanced to a level of 45 per cent by 2030 as compared to 2005 levels.

According to Government of India notification, there is a remarkable achievement on the part of the government of having achieved energy transition of achievement of 50 per cent of its installed electric power capacity from non fossil fuel sources, five years ahead of the committed timeline of 2030.

As we move forward there is further additional capacity being created in alternative green energy sources which will further enhance the non-fossil fuel based sources. India’s progress is particularly noteworthy on the global stage. India is having one of the lowest per capita emissions in the world and in this regard, this achievement is remarkable.

However, India in its pursuit of economic growth, is still using sizeable fossil fuels and hence efforts to limit the use of fossil fuels and reduce the intensity of greenhouse gas emissions will have to further intensified.

It is therefore expected that India will take the leadership at the climate conference level by substantially enhanced NDCs in the revised NDCs Plan is being submitted near to COP-30. India is expected to operationalised the India Carbon Market by 2026, under which 13 major sectors will be given mandatory emission intensity targets- and can trade their resulting savings if any via emission reduction certificates.

Let us hope that COP-30 to be held shortly in the Brazilian port city of Belem, Brazil will pave ways for much enhanced global commitments and action plan and solutions which are easily implementable and will be a further the efforts to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change.